How Israel will be blamed for the absence of PA elections - by Maurice Hirsch

...Let there be no misgivings. Abbas and his Fatah Party have no desire whatsoever to hold elections for either the Palestinian Parliament or the chairmanship. They know that they are far from being guaranteed to win. Thus, while pretending to want to play the democratic game, from their point of view, elections are to be avoided at all cost.

Lt. Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, Adv...
Opinion/JPost..
04 December '19..
Link: https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Why-Israel-will-be-blamed-for-the-absence-of-PA-elections-609913

When Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and his advisers sit down to plan how to escape the possibility of holding elections for the Palestinian Parliament and the chairmanship of the PA, they will no doubt come up with the ultimate, traditional Palestinian solution: Blame Israel!

There are two dominant parties in Palestinian politics: Fatah and Hamas.

In the formative years of the PA (1994-2005), Fatah, the dominant member of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the party of PA founding father Yasser Arafat, ruled the roost. Fatah’s candidate was elected PA chairman and Fatah ruled the nascent Palestinian Parliament.

Hamas, the internationally designated terrorist organization, spent the formative years of the PA building its power. On the one hand, it carried out hundreds of terrorist attacks. On the other, it created an entire social welfare network as an alternative to the corrupt PA/Fatah rule. Both means served the same goal: to curry favor with the Palestinians in order to pave the way to effectively compete against Fatah.

In the 2005 elections for PA chairman, the time was not yet ripe for Hamas to make a challenge. Accordingly, it boycotted the elections. Only 800,000 of the potential 1,700,000 voters cast their vote. Abbas received only 62% of the votes cast.

The 2006 elections for the PA Parliament were completely different.

Those elections followed Israel’s “disengagement” from Gaza, and the replacement of the comatose Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon with interim prime minister Ehud Olmert. Both events emboldened Hamas.

Abbas, who had taken different steps to facilitate an additional Fatah victory, and who wanted to legitimize his rule and the rule of the Fatah-led parliament, insisted that Israel allow Hamas to participate in the elections, even in Jerusalem. To his horror, Israel agreed.

A plan that might save both Israeli Jewish and Arab lives alike - by Prof. Hillel Frisch

Engendering economic well-being does not solve deep-seated political conflicts, but it holds out the prospect that differences can be expressed in less violent ways. Trump’s plan might save both Israeli Jewish and Arab lives alike – provided, of course, that it is not followed by a delusional peace process.

Prof. Hillel Frisch..
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,234..
23 July '19..
Link: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/trump-economic-plan-peace/

None of the three actors in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict envisions peace in the foreseeable future.

Hamas can’t entertain the idea of real peace for ideological reasons. It would mean openly acknowledging that the dream of Palestine “from the river to the sea” is no longer attainable, and in so doing, it would lose its legitimacy in favor of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is recognized by the international community. Peacemaking would also mean the end of Iranian military aid and Turkish and Qatari support.

Hamas would be threatened by the same marginalization that doomed once-strong Palestinian factions like the Popular and Democratic Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine. To court oblivion for the sake of the Jews is, to say the least, unpalatable.

Even less eager to make real peace is the PA under Mahmoud Abbas. Real peace would mean the cancellation of the daily penetration of Israeli security forces, which, in close coordination with PA security forces, currently protects the PA from their common foes – Hamas and Islamic Jihad – by arresting the lion’s share (70%) of their supporters. If the IDF is forced to withdraw for the sake of peace, the PA and its political elite will be threatened with nightmarish scenarios.

At best, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would emerge strong enough to engage in a long civil war in areas controlled at present by the PA. The outcome could be a division into a sort of Palestinian Judea and Samaria, with the former controlled by the Khalaileh (the Hebronites), who form the majority of east Jerusalem and south of it, and Hamas enjoying considerable support among Palestinian Judeans from Ramallah northward. That area would be controlled by Fatah factions and overlords who would either be divided or act in unison.

At worst (from the perspective of the PA), Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be able to achieve a complete takeover along the lines of Hamas’s success in Gaza in 2007.

Unlike the PLO elite of the past, which always found a refuge – first in Amman, then in Beirut, then in Tunis, and finally in Ramallah – the political elite of today’s PA has literally nowhere to flee.

Not one Arab country, including Jordan, will offer them refuge, meaning a bleak future under Hamas rule. For a glimpse into that future, Abbas and his coterie have only to look at how Fatah supporters fare in the one-party Hamas state of Gaza.

Nor can most Israeli voters envision peace in the near future, much as they would like to achieve it. Not only have they internalized the bitter lessons of Oslo – dubbed a peace process, but in fact a war process – which increased Israeli casualties five-fold and doubled Palestinian casualties, but they have only to contemplate the ramifications of enabling Hamas to replicate its actions along the Gaza border over the past year on the Green Line between Israel and the PA. Consider what fires, incendiary bombs, and daily to weekly attacks along the security fence between Afula and Jerusalem would mean.