The time has come to call Nasrallah's bluff - by Prof. Eyal Zisser

Israel should reinstitute the same ironclad rule it applies to the Syrian arena, whereby any violation of Israeli sovereignty or attack on its soldiers is a red line that will be reinforced.

Prof. Eyal Zisser..
Israel Hayom..
27 July '20..
Link: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/514493/

From a position of unprecedented weakness and distress, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is back to his old gambling habits. Similar to the summer of 2006, he is now threatening to perpetrate a terrorist attack against Israel in response to the death of one of his operatives in Syria. At the time, Nasrallah's failed gambit triggered an all-out war, which exacted a terrible price from Lebanon and mainly the Shiite ethnic group he purports to represent. Nasrallah himself was forced to pay a heavy price: personal freedom. The man has been shuttered in his bunker ever since and doesn't see the light of day, and ever since Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was assassinated in January, Nasrallah, too, doesn't know if today will be his last day.

Nasrallah, however, is shackled to his equations, and because he feels he has no other option and fears Israel will interpret his moves as weakness, he feels obligated to retaliate and is willing risk a head-on clash with it. He hopes, of course, that he'll be able to control the flames and hopes the attack "ends without a hitch," with minimum casualties on the Israeli side – which will allow Israel to absorb the event and temper its own counter-response, as it has done in the past.

For this reason alone Israel should not play into Nasrallah's hands. Rather, it should nullify the equations he is seeking to dictate and present him with a clear red line he cannot cross.

During the Second Lebanon War, Israel was strung along by poor leadership that failed to bring the IDF's massive military advantage to bear. Instead of bringing Hezbollah to its knees, Israel was needlessly drawn into a 33-day war of attrition.

And yet, the results of that war sent a clear and decisive message to Hezbollah that Israel will no longer allow the terrorist group to violate its sovereignty and continue attacking it from Lebanese soil. The quiet that prevailed along the border with Lebanon was therefore an important achievement, and it's a fact that Hezbollah, battered and deterred, recognized that preserving this quiet was just as much in its own interest.

Sarit, Israel's Eyes in the North: The Woman Who Watches Hezbollah - by Lahav Harkov

Sarit Zehavi, founder of the Alma Center think tank, has her eye on Hezbollah and her feet planted firmly in her beloved Galilee

Lahav Harkov..
Tablet Magazine..
16 December '19..

At the end of August, there was tension in the northern Galilee. Israel stopped Hezbollah from launching a drone from Syria by killing two terrorists, who had both been trained in Iran, before they could carry out the attack. Two drones crashed in Beirut, and the Lebanese blamed Israel, which denied involvement.

Sarit Zehavi, founder and CEO of Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank in the western Galilee focused on geopolitics and security on Israel’s northern border, posted a video on YouTube on Aug. 27, briefing viewers on how Israel foiled an Iranian attack from Syrian territory, and Lebanon’s connection to the incident. On Sept. 1, Hezbollah shot several rockets into northern Israel.

Zehavi’s son Mor was supposed to have his bar mitzvah several days later in their hometown, just a short drive from Israel’s border with Lebanon. But now, the plan looked like it was going to be a bust, and it reminded her of an entirely different bar mitzvah story—her father’s.

Nov. 29, 1947, was a joyous day in Israel, because the U.N. authorized the partition plan that was meant to split Mandatory Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state. And it was supposed to be a joyous time for the Zehavi family, who were refugees from Syria, because Moshe Zehavi—Sarit’s father—was supposed to have his bar mitzvah. His parents invited plenty of guests and his grandmother cooked up a feast.

The next day, about a third of a mile from the Zehavi family’s Petah Tikva home in central Israel, the first hostilities in what came to be known as Israel’s War of Independence took place when Arabs ambushed two buses full of Jews. Moshe’s bar mitzvah was called off.

When Moshe Zehavi turned 80, Sarit surprised him with a bar mitzvah at the ancient synagogue in Katzrin, in the Golan Heights. Moshe’s sister cried recounting the circumstances under which the original bar mitzvah date was canceled, Sarit said.

Five years after Moshe’s belated bar mitzvah, Sarit found herself wondering if another family celebration would have to be scrapped. “If Nasrallah ruins this bar mitzvah,” Zehavi said, referring to Hezbollah’s chief, “I’ll kill him myself.”

Luckily, history didn’t repeat itself. The escalation stopped soon after the thwarted drone attack, and Mor’s bar mitzvah went off without a hitch.

Zehavi still has her eye on Nasrallah, though.

(Continue to Full Article)

Lahav Harkov is the Knesset Correspondent for The Jerusalem Post. She tweets at @LahavHarkov.

The countdown toward a widespread confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah has begun - by Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira

...The picture is more complicated because of the bottom line: it can be said with certainty that Nasrallah is an actor and a liar who has turned manipulation into an art.

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira..
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs..
09 September '19..
Link: http://jcpa.org/countdown-begins-toward-a-battle-between-israel-and-hizbullah/

Various experts have expressed admiration toward Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah. Senior military officers in uniform and retirement, researchers, and journalists analyzing every gesture, smile, outburst of anger and criticism, shout or laugh and attributing meaning to it all assert that Nasrallah is reliable. He makes promises and delivers. He is faithful to his patrons in Tehran despite Lebanon’s attempts to restrain him.

The picture is more complicated because of the bottom line: it can be said with certainty that Nasrallah is an actor and a liar who has turned manipulation into an art.

Hizbullah, with Iranian assistance, brought specialized equipment
 to a precision missile factory in Lebanon. (IDF Spokesman Screengrab / YouTube)

Nasrallah closely follows everything that is published about him and Hizbullah in Israel and primarily abroad. He attributes great importance to the words and commentaries of senior Israeli officers both present and past. The interpretation that he gives these reports is that Israel is afraid of Hizbullah’s military might and especially the precision missiles in Hizbullah’s arsenal with their ability to strike deep inside Israel and at strategic installations.

Nasrallah is particularly following those “experts” who provide details and outline the enormity of Hizbullah’s military threat, primarily those who mention the names of the most endangered places and sites inside Israel. Senior security officials assert that in the next war there will be no boundaries between the military front and the civilian home front due to the impressively accurate Hizbullah missiles, which blur this differentiation. The more details provided in Israel on these matters, the more Nasrallah derives more encouragement and pleasure. He believes that Israeli society is weak and unprepared for war, and it will do anything to avoid a confrontation with Hizbullah.